A more positive look at the housing market from Larry Kudlow of CNBC

The Media Are Missing the Housing Bottom
by Larry Kudlow
Media reports painted a pessimistic picture of today’s release on existing home sales, which fell 15 percent from a year ago and recorded higher inventories. But inside the report was an awful lot of very good new news, which appear to be pointing to a bottom in the housing problem; in fact, maybe the tiniest beginnings of a recovery.
For example, the median existing home price has increased four consecutive months and is up 10 percent since February. Yes, it’s down 6 percent over the past year. But the monthly numbers show a gradual rebound. Actually, this median home price is $215,000 in June, compared to $196,000 last winter.
And there’s more. One of the hardest hit regions is the West, including California, Arizona, and Nevada. The other two bad states are Florida and Michigan. However, existing home sales in the western region are up four straight months, and are 17 percent above the low in October. At the same time, prices in the West have increased three straight months.
Meanwhile, overall national existing home sales are basically stabilizing at just under five million. And in the first and second quarters of 2008, these sales dropped slightly by 3 percent in each case, which is a whole lot better than the roughly 30 percent sales drops of the prior three quarters.

© 2008 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved

New Canaan Real Estate Activity July 6, 2008 through July 13, 2008 (Residential Only)

New Canaan Market Status Update
As of today, there have been 92 closings this year as compared to 145 in 2007 representing a 37% decrease in transactions. There are currently 255 homes on the market in New Canaan and another 39 in pending contracts.

New Listings

697 Cheesespring Rd $899,000
130 Brooks Rd $1,450,000
100 Tobys Lane $2,995,000
20 Ogden Rd $3.495,000

Pending Contracts

68 Orchard Dr $849,000
38 Harrison Ave $1,375,000
392 South Ave $1,980,000

Homes Sold

1037 Valley Rd $1,232,500
44 Heather Dr $1,307,500
17 Toquam Rd $1,571,500
95 Colonial Rd $1,762,000

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New Canaan Real Estate Activity June 29, 2008 through July 6, 2008 (Residential Only)

New Listings

71 Richmond Hill Rd $1,349,000
103 South Ave $1,395,000
80 Forest St $1,499,000
514 Weed St $2,995,000

Pending Contracts

36 Mortimer St $747,500
68 Orchard Dr $849,000
381 Old Stamford Rd $1,250,000
114 Rocky Brook Rd $1,675,000
255 Marvin Ridge Rd $1,825,000
292 Brushy Ridge Rd $2,375,000
58 Briscoe Rd $2,450,000
180 Marvin Ridge Rd $2,995,000

Homes Sold

26 Drummond Lane $1,146,000
32 Colonial Rd $1,235,000
232 Jonathan Rd $1,330,000
401 Brushy Ridge Rd $2,500,000
58 Greenley Rd $3,300,000
1578 Ponus Ridge Rd $5,200,000

New Canaan Real Estate Activity June 23, 2008 through June 29, 2008 (Residential Sales Only)

New Listings

25 Meadow Lane $995,000

985 New Norwalk Rd $1,299,000

59 Snowberry Lane $1,495,000

216 Old Norwalk Rd $1,749,000

72 Wellesley Dr $2,499,000

201 White Oak Shade Rd $2,950,000

574 Cascade Rd $4,675,240 (relisted)

Pending Sales

37 Fox Run Rd $1,299,000

180 Jonathan Rd $1,695,000

257 Marvin Ridge Rd $1,795,000

Homes Sold

85 Douglas Rd $1,095,000

39 Grace St $1,200,000

155 Weed St $1,275,000

233 Mill Rd $1,465,000

46 Benedict Hill Rd $1,500,000

29 Hawks Hill Rd $1,940,000

25 Apple Tree Lane $2,690,000

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Just Listed

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New Construction at its Finest

236 South Bald Hill Road

New Canaan, Ct

$3,890,000

Over 9,000 sq ft of quality and design, this highly detailed and thoughtfully designed residence spans 4 finished levels that encompasses 5 bedrooms, each with its own bath and also 3 half baths. The first floor has 10 ft ceilings. The richly appointed mahogany library has ample builtins and cabinets as well as a handsome marble fireplace. The master suite has a separate sitting room with fireplace, walk in closet with maple cabinetry and a luxurious master bath.

There is a third floor finished bonus room and the lower level is completely finished with exercise room, home movie theater, wine cellar, mechanical room and bath. Set on an incredibly beautiful property with an expansive 2.27 acre level and private rear yard, this home has a three car attached garage, wood roof, handsome stone terrace off the kitchen, a whole home integrated digital system and much more. A masterpiece of design and construction priced to sell at $3,890,000.

New Canaan Real Estate Activity June 16, 2008 through June 22, 2008 (Single Family Residential Only)

Just Listed. Elegant New Stone Colonial at Unbelievable Price $3,890,000




New Listings

83 Parade Hill Lane $729,000
42 Holly Rd $999,000
381 Old Stamford Rd $1,250,000
15 Snowberry Lane $1,579,000
16 West Rd $2,849,000
236 South Bald Hill Rd $3,890,000 (relisted)

Contracts Pending

151 Danforth Dr $1,195,000
19 Clapboard Hill $1,299,000
34 Brookwood Lane $1,399,000
17 Hawthorne Rd $2,349,000
292 Brushy Ridge Rd $2,375,000
74 Dogwood Lane $3,395,000
1578 Ponus Ridge Rd $5,695,000

Homes Sold

113 Little Brook Rd $1,250,000
571 Cheesespring Rd $1,285,000
728 Carter St $1,300,000
1937 Ponus Ridge Rd $2,100,000
131 Soundview Lane $2,150,000
10 Hillcrest Rd $3,100,000
362 South Ave $4,500,000

New Canaan Real Estate Activity June 9, 2008 thru June 15, 2008 (Single Family Residential Only)

New Listings

115 Richmond Hill Rd $795,000
76 East Ave $800,000
534 Valley Rd $1,395,000
2 Holmewood La $2,195,000
37 Lambert Rd $3,100,000
474 Ponus Ridge Rd $5,950,000 (relisted)

Contracts Pending

19 Clapboard Hill Rd $1,299,000
1037 Valley Rd $1,345,000
728 Carter St $1,385,000
927 New Norwalk Rd $1,695,000
178 Skyview Lane $1,699,000
126 Wellesley Dr $1,725,000
17 Hawthorne Rd $2,349,000

Homes Sold

29 Myanos Rd $1,705,000

New Listing 480 Cedar Lane, New Canaan, Ct

Just Listed for $1,195,000

Location, Location, Location. This 4 bedroom home sits superbly on a lovely corner property and is approached by a sweeping drive. The 1.3 acre property is landscaped and designed with specimen trees and plantings. Spacious living room with dramatic high ceilings, oversized dining room, 3 full and one half baths, 2 fireplaces, solarium, central air and 3 car garage are just some of its features. This property has tremendous potential for improvement, expansion or a completely new home. Call me today for a personal tour.

A real look at New Canaan’s second quarter numbers as of June 8, 2008.

In trying to analyze the speculation regarding the New Canaan real estate market, I compared some figures from 2007 to the current year. As expected, the number of transactions is significantly lower. There were 102 closed residential sales as of June 8, 2007 versus 65 closed sales so far this year representing a 36% decline in transactions. In addition, there were 76 properties that went pending (in contract but not closed) during the time period from April 1, 2007 through June 8, 2007 versus only 33 pending contracts during the same time period this year. This represents a decline of 57% in pending contracts. However, the sales numbers paint a different picture. Of the 65 sold homes this year the average sales price is $2,331,126 versus the average sales price last year of $2,358,635, an insignificant change. The median price figures are even more surprising.
The median price of sold homes to date this year is $1,872,000, while the median price as of June 8, 2007 was $1,781,000. On the surface, these figures paint a more positive picture; however, the difficulty in accurately portraying this comparison is that these figures are not accurately comparing apples to apples. What is really happening here is that the homes that are selling are selling at lower prices than they would have one or two years ago. These sellers have negotiated sales prices at varying degrees of discount so they could achieve their end goal, which is the sale of their home. There is significantly more value in the homes selling currently and a savvy buyer can end up with much more home than he would have in 2006 or 2007. Conversely, a motivated seller can certainly sell his New Canaan home, but not at the price he would have sold in the past stronger markets. Each transaction is subject to its unique negotiations and the motivations of each buyer and seller. There are many fine properties for sale and there is a buyer for each and every one of them. Keeping an open mind and recognizing a good opportunity is key for all sellers and buyers alike.

New Canaan Real Estate Activity June 2, 2008 thru June 8, 2008 (Single Family Residential Only)

New Listings

8 Tommys Lane $1,125,000
498 Valley Rd $1,995,000
7 Indian Waters Dr $2,050,000
46 Elm Place $2,075,000
29 Pequot Dr $2,450,000
89 West Rd $2,795,000
96 Stoneleigh Rd $3,499,000
114 Bridle Path Lane $4,595,000
93 Louises Lane $5,000,000

Contracts Pending

44 Hickok Rd $1,199,000
728 Carter St $1,385,000
401 Cedar Lane $1,649,000
29 Myanos Rd $1,890,225
392 South Ave $1,980,000
68 Woods End Rd $6,795,000

Homes Sold

737 Carter St $1,150,000
277 Country Club Rd $1,460,000
32 Old Studio Rd $1,780,000
290 Lapham Rd $1,800,000
364 Smith Ridge Rd $2,150,000
316 Turtleback Rd $4,998,000