Future Help for New Home Buyers (Click Here)

At last, some positive news about mortgage rates and the housing market. The attached article appeared in The New York Times.

The government is considering a plan to offer 4.5% mortgages to new buyers of homes. This will result in 500,000 new home sales and a loosening up of the housing market. 4.5% fixed rate mortgages have not been available since the mid 1960's.

New Canaan Real Estate Activity November 24, 2008 through December 7, 2008 (Residential Only)

Christmastime in New Canaan


New Listings

30 Charles Place $1,349,000
6 Parish Road S $1,625,000
10 Riverbank Ct $1,695,000
44 Four Winds Lane $4,195,000
107 Canoe Hill Road $4,295,000

Homes Sold
507 Old Stamford Rd $950,000
181 Ferris Hill $4,100,000

$4,600,000 Incredible New Price on New Canaan 4 lot Subdivision

This 10.69 acre parcel has been subdivided into 4 separate lots of 2+ acres each. The subdivision was fully approved by the town of New Canaan and is ready for building of 4 luxury homes in New Canaan's newest enclave. Located on Carter Street in New Canaan, this total property combines privacy, nature and a most convenient location. The four lots have been approved for 6 bedroom homes, each with pool sites. All septic, survey and engineering maps are available. Call me for a personal tour.

OPEN HOUSES SUNDAY DECEMBER 7

184 Lukes Wood Road $3,150,000 1-3pm


76 Seminary Street $739,000 1-4pm


36 Hoyt Street $949,900 1-3pm

Home Remodeling Projects Cost vs. Value

Remodeling Magazine in conjunction with the National Association of Realtors has just published their 2008-2009 Cost vs. Value Report which shows that remodeling, especially maintenance related projects and moderately priced upgrades, are providing stable paybacks, even in a slower market.

If you are wondering where your money will be safest during uncertain economic times, the following projects show the greatest return on investment.

Connecticut Region

Attic to Bedroom Midrange Remodel 67.2%
Kitchen Midrange Remodel 82%
Bathroom Upscale Remodel 67%
Basement Midrange Remodel 60%

New England Region

Midrange Deck Addition 76.8%
Midrange Siding 78.8%
Midrange Wood Windows 75%

Future sellers, making home improvements now can head off buyers trying to peck away at the sales price by pointing out imperfections. If some improvements are done, the improvements will help sell the property. However, a weakened economy is likely to slow seller spending on remodeling, at least in the short term and studies predict a 12% decline by second quarter 2009. Yet, despite declines in overall remodeling dollars spent and markets going through adjustments, investing in your own home may still be the wisest move.

Happy Thanksgiving

May your day be filled with the gift of thanksgiving. It is a great time to remember what a wonderful blessing it is to be around our family and friends at this time of year. All my very best wishes for a safe healthy holiday.

New Canaan Real Estate Activity November 17, 2008 through November 23, 2008 (Residential Only)

Housing bright spot amid economic slump

The following article was published in The New Canaan Advertiser on Thursday, November 20, 2008 as part of a series on the local housing market and our economic situation.

Written by Andrew Kersey
Thursday, November 20, 2008

This is the third installment of a series of articles that has explored the effects of the current economic crisis on various aspects of life in New Canaan, and how the town is dealing with the crunch.

There’s rarely been a better time to buy a house in New Canaan. For those who are able, this may be the lone silver lining gleaming from the economic gray cloud which has hung over the town and, of course, the country for the last year.
“This is a Nirvana time” for buying a house, New Canaan Board of Realtors President Susan Engel told the Advertiser last Friday.
“We’ve never had a better selection, better pricing and more potential for someone to make money on what they buy and decide to do with it.”
Between May and August this year the number of New Canaan housing sales fell 37 percent, 211 to 133, from the same period last year, according to property transfers registered at the town clerk’s office. September, however, saw only a six percent drop, a difference of only one sale.
Some realtors in town were cautiously optimistic that this may suggest an approaching market recovery, though it is still too early to tell. Meanwhile, they’ve noticed a dip in the number of houses on the market (currently 248) and a lag in activity on the part of buyers and sellers, who seem to be carefully waiting and watching.
“They’re waiting for that sense of security they need,” said Barbara Cleary of Barbara Cleary’s Realty Guild.
“People are just nervous,” agreed Sales Vice President of William Raveis Real Estate Denise Gannalo.
Of course, banks and mortgage lenders are nervous, too.
The subprime mortgage crisis has led to a stiffening of requirements for would-be home buyers, with banks monitoring home construction as well as demanding higher credit scores and verifiable income.
“Wall Street bonuses to come are not considered verifiable income,” Gannalo recently wrote on her New Canaan Real Estate blog.
New Canaan residents, despite many of them having, or until recently having, jobs in the financial services industry, have less to worry about than less affluent towns. But, this very affluence can also be an impediment when it comes to improving the local market.
“It’s a nice conservative mindset” New Canaan residents possess, said Engel. “And they can afford to hold on” to a house they’re considering selling. “But, they’re going to lose more by waiting.”
Gannalo said that her firm’s numbers have slowed, especially within the last quarter, due to wider market volatility, and emphasized that “A little bit of good news will go a long way” with cautious buyers and sellers.
She is selling more houses in lower price ranges, the largest number, 26 percent, with a price tag between $1 million and $1.5 million.
Likewise, Engel, said her brokerage company, Brotherhood and Higley, sold 70 houses in the $1 million to $2 million range, 28 of which sold for a mimimum of $100,000 under the already reduced asking price. Another 39 properties sold and took in $300,000 to 500,000 less than asked.
While the numbers at first glance may worry local homeowners who are poised to sell, realtors were quick to point out the other side of the equation.
“The perception when you sell low is that it’s a big loss, but its not,” said Cleary. Most sellers are buyers, she explained, so once people sell lower than they expected, they turn around and buy from within the same low-priced market.
“We all think our house is worth more than the market is saying,” said Bob Caird, a recent client of Cleary’s who sold his residence on West Norwalk Road for less than he was anticipating.
But after “aggressively looking around to see what was available,” Caird said he and his wife Joan — who were downsizing due to an empty nest — “quickly found out that there’s a lot of value right now” for buyers.
“The minute we did put our house on the market, we said, ‘Wait, let’s reverse this thing,’” and look at the other side of the coin.
They found a house for much cheaper than they thought they would.
“They didn’t realize how far their money would go,” said Cleary.”
As a result, Caird said he and his wife are “quite at ease at the moment.”
Engel told of a couple who just sold their $1.375-million New Canaan home for $1.05 million, then turned around and bought an $895,000-valued property in New Hampshire for $525,000.
But, not everyone has “the guts to do that,” she said.
Engel has lately encouraged her clients who are selling to list their houses at up to $1 million below market value, in an effort to generate interest in the property and initiate bidding. When sellers express concern over whether that will lead to lowball offers and what their neighbors might think, Engel responds, “Well, who’s going to know? It doesn’t matter what you put it out for, you’re going to get what it’s worth. But you’re not going to get any interest in it if [the price] is too high.”
One problem, she said, is that many of her clients are beholden to their friends’ and neighbors’ perceptions and advice.
“If my neighbor knows I sold it for so little, they’ll think I lost my job or something,” Engel said she hears from people.
At the suggestion of a low starting price, “They say ‘Oh no, at our cocktail party yesterday everyone said this house is worth this many million.’ Well,[neighbors] are very reluctant to say what it’s really worth” because they don’t want the sale price to affect their own property value, she said.
They may also not be acknowledging recent market realities.
“If you bought before ’05 you’re still making money,” she said of property appreciation on homes purchased before the housing bubble. “If you bought after ’05, you’ve got to get real.”
Town Assessor Sebastian Caldarella — who addressed residents’ concerns at a library event on real estate yesterday — said the issue of property value can also be misleading.
A few local home owners have called him to ask about the sagging housing market and how it will affect their home value. Property assessments for the town — which are assigned every five years for a period ending October 1 — won’t be available until the end of December or early January.
“My response to them is, yes, the market is down but it’s not capturing appreciation” that occurred during the 2005 and 2006 bubble.
“When you add everything together you actually see an increase in property values because a six or seven percent decrease in assessment” is still not enough to offset the steep rise in values that occured over the previous five years.
He added that property taxes will go up regardless of property values, however, because of future budget reconciliations the town will need to make.
“There are built in increases to the budget,” said First Selectman Jeb Walker, “but it’s way too soon to think about that.”
He said the town has started the budget process, but the mill rate — the tax per dollar of assessed property value — will not be set until mid-March or the end of April 2009.
By then, Cleary said she expected a better indication of the market’s direction. “We’ll know better in the Spring as to how it’s going to look. We’ll have a new president and a new sense of security,” she said.
For her part, Engel said she agreed with an assessment made by resident and investment firm chair Mike Holland in a story from last week’s Advertiser. “In order for us to come back, people have to lose money,” he said.
“You’ve got to look in the mirror and say ‘How much am I willing to lose to make this work?’” echoed Engel.


New Listings

5 Deer Park Rd $1,095,000
66 Summit Ridge Rd $1,295,000
68 Orchard Dr $2,195,000
74 Mather Farm Rd $6,995,000

Back on the Market
44 Valley Rd $1,375,000

Homes Sold
71 Rocky Brook Rd $855,000

The State of the New Canaan Real Estate Market

There seems to be an endless stream of news regarding the housing market, the credit crunch crisis and the unemployment figures. In light of some of this sobering news, I have put together an assessment of where New Canaan stands regarding the 2008 real estate market.

The actual inventory of homes on the market is 248, which is not a high number for New Canaan inventory. As some properties have sold and other properties have been withdrawn form the market, this figure is substantially reduced from inventory levels that approached 300 homes earlier this year. The above graph shows the levels of inventory as of the end of October 2008. A property on the market during the holiday season could benefit from decreased competition as some homeowners withdraw their homes from Thanksgiving Day until after the New Year. During this period, it not that much of an inconvenience for sellers because the actual amount of home showings are less and, more importantly, only the most serious buyers are looking at this time of year.

Our average price of single family homes has dropped from $2,308,070 as of November 18, 2007 to $2,150,842 today. This drop represents a 7% decline, however, the median price has only dropped 5% from $1,850,000 to$1,750,000. The most signiicant drop that I see is in the actual number of residential closings down from 231 to date in 2007 versus 158 to date this year. This 32% decline is representative of what everyone is observing as the "slowdown of the real estate market".

In breaking down the sales into price segments, 46% of the homes sold were between 1 and 2 million with 13.5% under 1 million. Additionally 40.6% of the homes sold were over 2 million, with 22.2% of the homes between 2 and 3 million and 18.4% of the homes sold over 3 million.



The percentage of listing price to selling price to date this year is 94.9% which remains relatively unchanged from 95.1% during the same period in 2007. The average number of days on the market this year is 179 days versus 183 days last year.


Summing up, sales are still happening but only to those sellers who have adjusted the asking price of their home accordingly and whose homes are in good condition. Contrary to popular belief, there is plenty of mortgage money available to qualified purchasers with 700 credit scores and with verifiable income. The downpayment required is 20% down for up to million, 25% down for up to 1.5 million and 30% down for over 2 million. There is even mortage money available for credit scores under 700, however, the interest rate will be higher.

New Canaan Real Estate Activity November 10, 2008 through November 16, 2008 (Residential Only)

New Listings

98 Millport Ave $550,000
3 Charles Place $1,100,000(relisted)
187 Old Stamford Rd $1,689,000
188 Benedict Hill Rd $2,450,000
39 Running Brook Rd $2,549,000

Pending Contracts

141 Millport Ave $869,000
44 Valley Rd $1,375,000
181 Ferris Hill Rd $4,999,000

Homes Sold

13 Summer St $552,500

Consider Some Affordable Options

Not sure of what to do?

3 Bedroom Townhouse for sale at $739,000

4 Bedroom Colonial for rent at $4800

Housing Beats Stocks as an Investment

The following is a recent news release from the National Association of Realtors. I thought it was an interesting view of the markets maybe putting some other factors into perspective.

Housing continues to be a solid investment, largely unaffected by the volatile movements
of the stock market, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The sharp changes in the financial markets over the last year underscore the
stability of residential real estate as a safe choice for consumers. “Homeownership
should be approached as a long-term investment, providing both equity accumulation and
tax benefits over time.
The National Association of Realtors reports the median existing-home price
increased a little over 4 percent last year, while Freddie Mac said home values increased
7 percent in 2000. In the same time frame, stock indexes finished in negative territory.
However, NAR pointed out that the true return on a home investment should not be based
simply on home appreciation, but also the amount leveraged. Homebuyers typically use
their own money to cover only 5 to 20 percent of the purchase price of a home, yet the
home appreciation they realize is based on the total value. “In other words,
homeownership is a leveraged buy-in”.
In addition, home buyers receive tax benefits for their investments, in the form of
deductions allowed for mortgage interest and property taxes. “This leveraging of borrowed
funds gives housing a return far in excess of the market’s appreciation”.
The 1998 “State of the Nation’s Housing” report from Harvard University’s Joint
Center for Housing Studies shows a dramatic increase in the rate of return on housing the
longer it is held. For instance, the housing survey shows that the typical homeowner who
experiences an annual home appreciation rate of 5 percent and who made a down
payment of 10 percent will generally receive a 94 percent return after owning the home
only three years.
After owning five years, the rate of return increases to 225 percent; after 10 years,
the rate of return jumps to 623 percent. For those making a 20 percent down payment
and experiencing the same amount of home appreciation, the rate of return is lower, but
still very respectable: after owning three years, the average rate of return is 46 percent;
after the five years, 110 percent; and after 10 years, 305 percent.
In comparing changes in stock prices to changes in housing prices, NAR noted that
while the stock market has experienced wide swings in value over the past 20 years,
home values overall have continued to rise steadily. Between 1976 and 1997, before the
more recent period of wild stock market variations, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite
Stock Price Index (S&P 500), a widely accepted measure of the performance of the U.S.
stock market, recorded an annual average growth rate of 11.7 percent. At the same time,
the resale value of homes rose at an annual average rate of 5.7 percent. However,
during four of those years, the S&P 500 posted a decrease in overall stock prices; while
housing prices in general increased consistently. In fact, during that time period, the
variance in stock returns was more than 13 times that of the variance in home
appreciation at the national level.
“Housing is not a quick-in, quick-out investment. However, when purchased for the
long term, housing is one of the safest investments a consumer can make,” NAR said. “In
addition to the savings accumulated through a buildup of equity and the tax advantages, a
home provides shelter. Absolutely no other investment provides this benefit.

###

New Canaan Real Estate Activity November 3, 2008 through November 9, 2009 (Residential Only)

New Listings

62 Turtleback Road $1,345,000
306 Cedar Lane $1,649,000
112 Lone Tree Farm Rd $1,895,000
174 Marshall Ridge Rd $1,985,000

Homes Sold

868 Silvermine Rd $1,050,000
68 Ludlowe Rd $2,650,000